Pokémon Card 151 · #201 · Japanese

Charizard ex (JP 151)

Keep raw PSA 10 ≈ 2.8× raw

Probability-weighted value (¥11,238) doesn't beat raw + grading (¥12,980).

Est. grading cost¥8,000
Expected value¥-1,742
Break-even graded¥12,980

Graded figures are recent sold medians from eBay; the raw value is the TCGplayer market price. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

Raw value

TCGplayer market basis

¥4,980 market

Asking range ¥4,600–¥7,200 · 26 listings · as of 2026-06-28

Graded snapshot

recent sold median · eBay sold basis
  • PSA 10 ¥13,800 9 sold ↑ 2.8× raw
  • PSA 9 ¥8,200 5 sold → 1.6× raw

sold median · n sold · as of 2026-06-28

Grading premium: a PSA 10 sold for about 2.8× the raw card.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 6 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 60% · ≈6/10
  • 9 30% · ≈3/10
  • ≤8 10% · ≈1/10
Expected value ¥-1,742
Break-even graded value ¥12,980
Verdict Keep raw

Probability-weighted value (¥11,238) doesn't beat raw + grading (¥12,980).

Batch & timing

Total invested¥12,980
Total expected value¥-1,742
Aggregate ROI-13%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 3 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

EN vs JP

English print

$42 raw

Japanese print

¥4,980 raw

Domestic JP raw runs well under the EN print; PSA Japan keeps grading close to home.

The reasoning

JP raw runs cheaper than the EN print, but even a strong gem rate leaves the probability-weighted PSA 10 premium short of the ¥8,000 domestic fee — keep it raw.

Full card-specific analysis renders here — written per card, never templated.