Grading ROI
Should you grade it?
One rule: grading pays off when the probable graded value beats raw plus the cost of grading. Not when the PSA 10 price looks high. We weigh by the gem rate, never the best case.
The calculation
EV = Σ P(grade) · price(grade) − raw − grading cost
- Every number in the verdict comes from this one formula — nothing hand-filled.
- A high PSA 10 price with a low gem rate is a chase, not a lock.
- Too few listings to be sure → “Insufficient data”, verdict held.
Try it on a card
Pidgeot ex — Obsidian Flames #225. Drag the gem rate and watch the verdict move.
Run your own numbers
Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data
Grade-probability distribution
≈ 3 of 10 reach 10 Expected value $48.25
Break-even graded value $115
Verdict Chase PSA 10
Positive EV ($48.25) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.
Batch & timing
Total invested$115
Total expected value$48.25
Aggregate ROI42%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 5 days
Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.
