Obsidian Flames · #223

Charizard ex

Worth grading PSA 10 ≈ 4.3× raw

Probability-weighted value clears raw + grading with EV $14.05 at a 60% top-grade rate.

Est. grading cost$20
Expected value$14.05
Break-even graded$34.25

Graded figures are recent sold medians from eBay; the raw value is the TCGplayer market price. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

Raw value

TCGplayer market basis

$14.25 market

Asking range $13–$24 · 48 listings · as of 2026-06-28

Graded snapshot

recent sold median · eBay sold basis
  • PSA 10 $61 12 sold ↑ 4.3× raw
  • PSA 9 $33 7 sold → 2.3× raw
  • CGC 10 $44 4 sold → 3.1× raw

sold median · n sold · as of 2026-06-28

Grading premium: a PSA 10 sold for about 4.3× the raw card.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 6 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 60% · ≈6/10
  • 9 30% · ≈3/10
  • ≤8 10% · ≈1/10
Expected value $14.05
Break-even graded value $34.25
Verdict Worth grading

Probability-weighted value clears raw + grading with EV $14.05 at a 60% top-grade rate.

Batch & timing

Total invested$34.25
Total expected value$14.05
Aggregate ROI41%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 3 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

EN vs JP

English print

$14.25 raw

Japanese print

¥2,200 raw

JP print runs deeper; EN holds the resale edge.

The reasoning

Strong gem rate and a 4× PSA 10 premium clear the cost — a sensible grade.

Full card-specific analysis renders here — written per card, never templated.