Obsidian Flames · #225

Pidgeot ex

Chase PSA 10 PSA 10 ≈ 2.5× raw

Positive EV ($48.25) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Est. grading cost$20
Expected value$48.25
Break-even graded$115

Graded figures are recent sold medians from eBay; the raw value is the TCGplayer market price. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

Raw value

TCGplayer market basis

$95 market

Asking range $88–$130 · 17 listings · as of 2026-06-28

Graded snapshot

recent sold median · eBay sold basis
  • PSA 10 $240 5 sold ↑ 2.5× raw
  • PSA 9 $150 4 sold → 1.6× raw
  • CGC 10 $180 3 sold ↓ 1.9× raw

sold median · n sold · as of 2026-06-28

Grading premium: a PSA 10 sold for about 2.5× the raw card.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 3 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 30% · ≈3/10
  • 9 45% · ≈5/10
  • ≤8 25% · ≈2/10
Expected value $48.25
Break-even graded value $115
Verdict Chase PSA 10

Positive EV ($48.25) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Batch & timing

Total invested$115
Total expected value$48.25
Aggregate ROI42%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 5 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

The reasoning

The textured full-art surface tanks the gem rate — only worth it if you hit the 10.

Full card-specific analysis renders here — written per card, never templated.