Pokémon 151 · #199/165

Charizard ex (EN 151)

Chase PSA 10 PSA 10 ≈ 2.1× raw

Is the Charizard ex (EN 151) worth grading?

Only as a PSA 10 chase. Positive EV ($88) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Est. grading cost$20
Expected value$88
Break-even graded$320

Graded figures are recent sold medians from eBay; the raw value is the TCGplayer market price. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

Raw value

TCGplayer market basis

$300 market

Asking range $280–$380 · 22 listings · as of 2026-06-28

Graded snapshot

recent sold median · eBay sold basis
  • PSA 10 $620 14 sold ↑ 2.1× raw
  • PSA 9 $360 8 sold → 1.2× raw

sold median · n sold · as of 2026-06-28

Grading premium: a PSA 10 sold for about 2.1× the raw card.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 3 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 30% · ≈3/10
  • 9 45% · ≈5/10
  • ≤8 25% · ≈2/10
Expected value $88
Break-even graded value $320
Verdict Chase PSA 10

Positive EV ($88) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Batch & timing

Total invested$320
Total expected value$88
Aggregate ROI28%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 2 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

EN vs JP

English print

$300 raw

Japanese print

¥4,980 raw

The English 199 costs far more raw than the Japanese 201 for a thinner PSA 10 margin — the comparison page lays the two side by side.

The reasoning

Positive EV, but it rides a ~30% gem rate on a textured full-art surface — a chase, not a lock. Most pulls land PSA 9.

Full card-specific analysis renders here — written per card, never templated.