EN ↔ JP comparison · which version to grade

Grade the Japanese Charizard ex, or the English one?

Which to grade: Grade the English 199 if either — it is the only side with positive expected value, and even then only as a ~30% PSA 10 chase. The Japanese 201 is far cheaper to own, but its PSA 10 premium does not clear the ¥8,000 domestic grading fee in expectation. Under a likely PSA 9, skip both.

Side-by-side of the same card in both languages. Graded figures are recent sold medians (eBay); raw is the TCGplayer / market reference. Gem rates are labeled estimates. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

English Chase PSA 10
Charizard ex (151) — English (Pokémon 151 #199/165)
Charizard ex (151) — English (Pokémon 151 #199/165)

Pokémon 151 · #199/165 · Special illustration rare

Raw market
$300
PSA 10 sold
$620 · 14 sold ↑
Gem rate est.
≈ 30%
Break-even
$320
PSA 10 premium
2.1× raw
Expected value
$88

Positive EV ($88) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Full English verdict →

Source: recent eBay sold · raw market · as of 2026-06-28 · example/mock

Run your own numbers — Japanese side

The cited answer above is static; this is the interactive tool for the Japanese print. The English side has its own calculator on its card page.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 6 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 60% · ≈6/10
  • 9 30% · ≈3/10
  • ≤8 10% · ≈1/10
Expected value ¥-1,742
Break-even graded value ¥12,980
Verdict Keep raw

Probability-weighted value (¥11,238) doesn't beat raw + grading (¥12,980).

Batch & timing

Total invested¥12,980
Total expected value¥-1,742
Aggregate ROI-13%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 3 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

← All EN ↔ JP comparisons