Pokémon Card 151 · #200/165 · Japanese

Venusaur ex (JP 151, SAR)

Chase PSA 10 PSA 10 ≈ 10.4× raw

Is the Venusaur ex (JP 151, SAR) worth grading?

Only as a PSA 10 chase. Positive EV (¥300) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Est. grading cost¥8,000≈ $53
Expected value¥300≈ $2
Break-even graded¥10,500≈ $70

¥150 / $1 · as of 2026-06-29 · approx. · example/mock

Graded figures are recent sold medians from eBay; the raw value is the TCGplayer market price. As of 2026-06-28. example/mock data

Raw value

TCGplayer market basis

¥2,500 market≈ $17

Asking range ¥2,200–¥3,800 (≈ $15–$25) · 30 listings · as of 2026-06-28

¥150 / $1 · as of 2026-06-29 · approx. · example/mock

Graded snapshot

recent sold median · eBay sold basis
  • PSA 10 ¥26,000≈ $173 8 sold ↑ 10.4× raw
  • PSA 9 ¥5,000≈ $33 5 sold → 2.0× raw

sold median · n sold · as of 2026-06-28

¥150 / $1 · as of 2026-06-29 · approx. · example/mock

Grading premium: a PSA 10 sold for about 10.4× the raw card.

Run your own numbers

Estimates are editable — grading cost is never hardcoded into the verdict. example/mock data

¥150 / $1 · as of 2026-06-29 · approx. · example/mock

Grade-probability distribution

≈ 3 of 10 reach 10
  • 10 30% · ≈3/10
  • 9 50% · ≈5/10
  • ≤8 20% · ≈2/10
Expected value ¥300≈ $2
Break-even graded value ¥10,500≈ $70
Verdict Chase PSA 10

Positive EV (¥300) but it rides on a 30% top-grade rate — a chase, not a lock.

Batch & timing

Total invested¥10,500≈ $70
Total expected value¥300≈ $2
Aggregate ROI3%
Top-grade sales to recover1
Est. time to sell-through≈ 3 days

Sell-through time is a rough estimate from recent sold velocity — not a promise.

EN vs JP

English print

$22 raw

Japanese print

¥2,500 raw≈ $17

English counterpart is 151 SIR 198; completes the starter trio with Charizard and Blastoise.

¥150 / $1 · as of 2026-06-29 · approx. · example/mock

The reasoning

Cheap raw, big PSA 10 ceiling — but a ~30% gem rate makes it a chase on the 10. Land a 9 and the fee eats the margin.

Full card-specific analysis renders here — written per card, never templated.